Offutt AFB, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

314
FXUS63 KOAX 111839
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
139 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional threat for strong to severe storms (20 to 40%
  chance) expected today. If a storm can develop, it will likely
  become severe with all hazards possible.

- Showers and storms persist for Sunday, particular in far
  southeast Nebraska toward western Iowa (25 to 50% chance). A
  strong storm or two may occur (5% chance).

- Active pattern continues into next week with continued shower
  and storm chances. Some storms may be strong, particularly on
  Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures in the 70s and 80s persist
  before a slight cool down expected on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

18z RAP objective analysis at H8 shows a 30 to 40kt LLJ pointing
into much of the Central and Northern Plains. This feature helped
force widespread showers and storms earlier this morning, with most
locations receiving anywhere from a tenth to quarter of an inch of
rainfall, while far southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa received
a healthy half inch to inch.

A brief lull in activity is expected for the early afternoon with
only a few lingering rain showers. Expect highs today to reach the
60s to low 70s with gusty south-southeasterly winds. A stronger H5
shortwave off to the west will eventually result in a sfc low
developing out in the western Dakotas. The feature will lift a
boundary and plume of moisture back into the area with dew points
increasing to the low to mid 60s. A secondary shortwave now
currently over northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska will also
eject northeast toward the area. Instability of 1,500 to 2,000 j/kg
in addition to 30 to 35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear will be available
for convection to use **IF** it can develop and sustain itself.
Forecast BUFKIT soundings suggest weak capping hanging on across
much of the forecast area aside from portions of southeast Nebraska
where daytime heating may erode the feature.

Latest 12z CAM output suggests a variety of scenarios that could
occur. Some guidance like the NSSL WRF tries to develop some
convection in southeast Nebraska as early as 19-20z as the secondary
H5 wave inches closer to the area, likely rooted aloft per forecast
soundings. However, other guidance like the HiRes ARW, FV3, and
eventually the NSSL WRF develop convection around 23z/00z that would
likely be sfc based. 12z and subsequent runs of the HRRR model seem
the least interested in firing off and sustaining any convection in
the area likely due to the nebulous forcing from the wave being
unable to break the cap. All this to say that lots of uncertainty
exists regarding if convection will develop. If convection does
form, it will likely become severe with large hail and strong winds,
and if it can become sfc based, a tornado cannot be ruled out
(especially in southeast Nebraska) given the impressive low level
curvature observed in hodographs and model output 0-1 km SRH of 100-
200 m2/s2. A conditional marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather is in place for much of the forecast area this afternoon and
evening.

Given the uncertainty of showers and storms developing, have
continued trend of keeping lower PoPs of 20 to 40% for much of the
forecast area this afternoon and evening. Overnight into early
Sunday morning, CAMs suggest a few lingering showers across the area
(15-20% chance). Lows tonight remain mild in the upper 50s to low
60s.

Sunday will see some continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms, this time over our far southeast areas (25-50%
chance). Model guidance indicates a second wave clipping those areas
along with continued warm air advection helping provide lift,
although the better moisture transport shifts east of the area by
Sunday afternoon. If convection is able to develop, could see
another threat for strong to severe storms with lingering
instability/borderline shear of 25 to 30 kts. A marginal risk for
severe storms remains in place for much of eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa. Highs Sunday warm to the mid 70s to mid 80s over our
far northwest with gusty southwest winds. Our far northwest could
see some high to very high fire danger too, but that may be negated
by the recent rainfall we`ve received/the spring greenup. The lowest
RH of 15 to 20% also doesn`t appear to overlap with the strongest
wind speeds.

Sunday night may see a few lingering rain showers and thunderstorms,
mainly over our far eastern areas with chances remaining at 20 to
40%.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The active pattern for showers and storms will continue into much of
next week. For Monday, will see another H8 baroclinic zone lift
northeast across the area with continued warm air advection helping
push temperatures to the 80s areawide. A sfc low will track
northeast through the area in tandem with a mid level wave which may
help spark some showers and storms. However, the LLJ looks to point
more toward the east, away from the forecast area. If a storm
manages to form, it could become strong. NBM currently suggests only
a 15 to 20% chance for some light PoPs along our northern and
eastern border areas for Monday.

By Tuesday, should see a more potent H5 shortwave lift northeast
from the Four Corners area into the Central and Northern Plains. Lee
cyclogenesis ensues with the sfc cyclone tracking northeast
throughout the day. Model guidance suggests the best instability and
moisture pooling behind the front over our far eastern and
southeastern service area. Coupled with strong deep-layer shear,
should see another severe threat for the area (15% chance for areas
east of a Lincoln to Omaha line). PoPs remain at 20 to 40% areawide
Tuesday.

Model guidance stalls the shortwave a bit by Wednesday with
lingering showers before finally lifting out of the area Thursday
with brief ridging. Continued disturbances are progged to track
through the area by late Thursday into Friday resulting in continued
PoP chances of 20 to 40% by Friday. Temperatures Tuesday through
Thursday remain warm in the 70s and 80s before a slight cool down to
the 60s to low 70s arrives for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A low stratus deck remains in place over terminals this
afternoon resulting in IFR ceilings. Some breaks in clouds to
scattered may occur before broken and overcast ceilings lift to
MVFR and eventually VFR. Have adjusted times a bit earlier for
stratus clearing out with this issuance based on latest model
guidance. 1738z radar imagery shows ongoing areas of showers
and storms just south of KLNK. Some of these may clip the
terminal within the next two hours or so, but considerable
uncertainty exists on if these storms will sustain themselves so
have left mentions out of TAF for now. More showers and storms
may redevelop late this afternoon into the evening hours (30 to
40% chance), but lots of spread exists amongst model solutions
on if storms will even develop. If storms form, they could be
strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado.

Ceilings deteriorate back to MVFR after 08z at KOMA and KLNK
and persist into Sunday morning. Gusty southeasterly winds of
25 to 30 kts persist for much of the TAF period, but turn
southerly late tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo